Home, sweet home.  This year, the East-West Shrine Game and week of practices are being held in St. Petersburg, FL.  This is pretty close to where I live in Tampa, and so I am loving the “commute” to and from practices.  Sad to say, no practices in a hotel ball room this time around.  As fun as it was in Orlando last year seeing a player get blocked so hard he shattered a potted plant, I think I prefer a good old fashioned outdoor field.  At least, I feared for my life a little less.

As usual, one of the great attractions of the week is being able to hang out with the likes of Wes Bunting of the National Football Post, Cecil Lammey of ESPN Radio 102.3 in Denver, Chad Reuter now of the NFL Network, and this year Michael Schottey of The Bleacher Report.  Of course, the football is also a huge attraction.  They always say, you know you’re doing what you love if you’d do it for free.  It only follows that I must absolutely adore analyzing draft prospects, writing about them, and getting the chance to see them all compete in settings like this.

East Practice

• Quarterbacks in general all came out small, with the exception of B.J. Coleman of Tennessee-Chattanooga who was a full 6’3″.  The other guys came out in the 6’1″ range, except for little Dan Persa who was more like 5’11″.  John “Don’t call me Johnny” Brantley came in at a good height, closer to 6’3″ than 6’2″.  Chandler Harnish is 3rd tallest at 6’1.5″ which will get him listed at 6’2″ in the program guides, so that’s kind of a win for him.

• Widely regarded as potentially the best quarterback in the Shrine Game, I came out expecting a lot from QB B.J. Coleman.  I won’t say I was disappointed, because the first day is the first day, but his accuracy was erratic to say the least.  One thing is for certain, the ball hums through the air when he throws it.  I brought up the name John Skelton with Cecil Lammey and Michael Schottey, and later when we regrouped with Wes Bunting he separately told us he was reminded of Skelton as well, so we were all thinking the same thing.  One difference between Coleman and Skelton is, I didn’t have a problem with Coleman’s drop or his footwork.  Skelton looked pretty leaden in his footwork when he was at Shrine practices.  I’m interested in how Coleman improves as the week wears on.  However, I have to say, I wasn’t impressed with his reads or decision making in team drills, and of course the ball was sailing all over the place on him.

• It wasn’t as bad as QB Austin Davis of Southern Miss, though.  Davis alternated between throwing softballs that were catchable but not impressive, to throwing prettier passes that weren’t even CLOSE to their target.  He missed short, he missed intermediate, he missed deep, the whole works.  Cecil quickly identified that when he tries to get some velocity on the ball, he’s clearly losing a ton of accuracy.  That was one problem I had with Andy Dalton last year, but the problem was not nearly as pronounced as it was today (just one day) in Austin Davis.

• John “Don’t Call Me Johnny” Brantley was definitely the worst quarterback in the East group, which puts him up there for worst quarterback in St. Petersburg (possibly including high school students).  Cecil Lammey pointed out that he continually bobbled his snaps.  He was also very erratic with his accuracy and it became frustrating to receivers on the occasions they were creating separation (which wasn’t much, more on that later).  His reads were bad in team drills, and he ended up getting “sacked” a few times as I recall.  I tried not to focus too much on him because I don’t have many good things to say about him in general, and I never expected much from him.

• As you have probably heard by now, Tennessee Tech’s Tim Benford was the hottest wide receiver in East practices, by a country mile.  This was a [U]unanimous[/U] observation from everyone that watched.  I noticed very, very quickly that he was the only guy there that looked like he knew what he was doing.  He’s got a medium build at just under 6’0″ and 199 lbs with arms longer than 33 inches.  He’s wound up fairly tight and moves with balance and authority.  He was silky smoove (my word) in his route running, and he tracked the ball well and caught it cleanly.  He could create separation against just about any defensive back he faced.  Not exactly a trash talker, but he showed some confidence as he got brought to the ground by corner Micah Pellerin of Hampton, and immediately yelled “Ohhh, so that’s how you’re gonna bring it, aye cuz?”  He did drop one pass that was thrown woefully behind him on a quick slant, so he’s not bullet proof, but that was definitely more the quarterback’s fault than his.  Still, he set the bar high with his own performance, and so you were expecting to see him make that impressive twirling catch.  I said he reminds me of Denarius Moore.  I stand by that.  But others didn’t necessarily agree.

• The other receivers for the East were rubbish.  Miami’s Laron Byrd looks like he should be catching a lot of passes on Sunday, but he displayed very little in the way of ball skills.  He just didn’t even know how to approach the ball in the air, especially deep.  There was indecision, like he couldn’t tell how he needed to catch each ball.  I thought he showed this running routes against air, as well as in coverage drills against defensive backs.  The guy was just a major disappointment, given that it’s only the first day.  Unfortunately, Kevin Hardy of Citadel was probably the worst receiver on the day.  He is clearly fast and can clearly run, but he displayed little in the way of control over his speed in his route running, and he was the only guy there worse than Byrd with the ball in the air.  If Byrd didn’t know how to approach the ball and seemed indecisive and awkward, Hardy seemed to decisively and actively bat the ball away from him like it was coated in Super AIDS.  It was a shame, because you could tell he wanted to do well, and was getting very upset with himself.  Later in the day we all took turns in the car saying who was our favorite player and who was our least favorite.  I was last to go and nobody had named Kevin Hardy, so I volunteered him, and I think there was unanimous “Oh I forgot about him, definitely” in the car.  Not naming names, just sayin…

• B.J. Cunningham was a big disappointment as a receiver.  He created virtually no separation during the practice, and seemed really uncomfortable with the physical coverage that the East defensive backs were trying out on the receivers.  He didn’t catch the ball poorly, but he didn’t catch it well, either.  Early in practice I had a good mark for him because of the way he ran through the catch on a deep slant, never breaking stride and flashing the ability to quiet his eyes and focus on the ball without jumping or changing his gait.  But from then on, he just didn’t create the separation he should have.  Truth be told, you might say that California (PA) receiver Thomas Mayo outperformed him.  Mayo came in at over 6’1″ and 207 lbs, with a good frame and flashed quickness and the kind of sneaky movement ability that could catch passes at the next level.  But his luck against the DBs, much as all the rest of the receivers sans-Benford, was iffy at best.

• The most interesting tight end from a pure movement standpoint was Temple’s Evan Rodriguez.  He flashed at me early for effort and fluid movement ability.  But he’s LESS than 6’2″, and 242 lbs.  He’s proportioned like a receiving tight end, the kind that might go out and run some routes, but he clearly lacks top end speed and at that size it’s hard for me to imagine him making things easy on quarterbacks in the seam.  He had one very impressive play on the day, where he ran against man coverage, shook free with good hand use, got behind the defender and then ran under a floater and made the over the shoulder grab.  Still, it’s hard to see him making those grabs at the next level.  Georgia’s Bruce Figgins just lumbered the whole day, which you can expect as he’s over 6’3″ and a whopping 272 lbs.  He will not present much in the passing game, but he plays really low and so I’m intrigued with him as a blocker.  At over 6’6″ and 258 lbs, Chase Ford WILL get drafted on his size and running ability.  He did not lumber like Figgins or some of the West tight ends I’ll touch on later.  He’s not going to be mistaken for Jimmy Graham as he doesn’t have Graham’s speed or fluid movement, definitely not his ups, but he can run for this size and will present his quarterback a nice target up the seam.  He struggled a little bit with throws that came outside his frame but the quarterbacks were so erratic, it was tough to ding him too much.

• Some of the defensive backs were flashing all over the place, and none more so than CB Josh Norman of Coastal Carolina.  His size is very deceptive.  Sitting in his stance, waiting for snap, you might even swear he’s a smaller corner.  But he’s almost a half inch above 6’0″ and weighed in at a solid 203 lbs, and seems all arms and legs with a total wing span that rivals some of the defensive ends here in St. Petersburg.  His arm length comes out at about 32.5″ but his wing span is 77 & 1/8th inches, which is just a half-inch short of the 6’6.5″ tight end Chase Ford.  Norman moves and closes extremely well, and uses his length to dominate receivers physically.  He’s not afraid to sit on a route and he reads receivers’ leverage well.  I won’t know how he tackles until we get to the game but based on his efforts in giving the fake thud, I have a feeling he might blow some people up.  I have never once seen this guy play but I’m already extremely interested in him based on one practice.  He’s built and plays like a predator (not the kind Chris Hanson would catch).  He flashed over, and over, and over again, either breaking up passes or intercepting them.  The best was in team 11 on 11′s when you could see him track the ball in the air while maintaining coverage on his assignment, breaking off and flowing to the football seamlessly.  He gets me.

• That’s not to take away from any of the other defensive backs at East practice, because there were some good ones.  Norman was the best of the East or the West but Charles Brown of North Carolina drew good marks as well.  I’ve always liked Brown more than his former teammate Kendric Burney, as I’d never been comfortable with Burney’s speed.  Brown came in only 5’9″ but with an unusually solid 209 lbs on his frame.  When the hitting is allowed, he’s going to hit, and he flashed some of that even in shorts.  The only problem for him was that he was just a little bit slow in reading the routes and closing on the ball.  However, he was a very safe player, limiting gains to small ones, and with these quarterbacks and every pass being an adventure, limiting gains is the way to go because it’s only a matter of time before they screw one up.  The previously mentioned Micah Pellerin of Hampton also played well during the day and I believe he may have even come up with an interception.  He was very physical in coverage, as were all the East corners, and his frame looks very solid.  Truthfully, the best corner aside from Norman might have been Justin Bethel of Presbyterian College.  He notched quite a few broken up passes and had a solid, athletic 5’11″ and 196 lbs frame.  He wasn’t afraid to be physical at the point of the catch and he showed a lot of closing speed.  One guy that failed to impress in any test other than the eyeball test was Notre Dame’s Robert Blanton.  On the field, he looks far bigger than his 6’0″ and 197 lbs measurements.  But he got turned around and seemed to forget how to play football entirely at times.  It was ugly.  Coordinated movement skills just left him for the day, for whatever reason, and if this is what he’s going to show all week then I’m not interested.

• There isn’t a whole lot of opportunity for safeties to flash in these settings, unless your name is Kam Chancellor.  But South Florida’s Jerrell Young and Kansas State’s Tysen Hartman took advantage of their opportunities.  Young stayed around the ball and benefited as one got tipped up and he snagged it for a nice interception.  Hartman flashed some good coverage.  I think Young has a ways to go in terms of his pure coverage and getting out of his transition, but I watched the guy play football all year for the South Florida Bulls and he’s always stood out as a play maker and explosive player.  I think he could be even better than Mistral Raymond, another South Florida guy I talked up last year and ended up going in the 6th round to the surprise of many.

• I realize I’m missing a LOT here, particularly the offensive and defensive linemen, the running backs and the linebackers.  But, I only have two eyes, and today being padless, I focused on the quarterbacks, receivers and defensive backs.  Sorry.  The running backs caught my eye a little bit.  I think most agreed that Florida Atlantic’s Alfred Morris was the surprise player and perhaps even the best there.  Even though I’m not a fan of what I see from Davin Meggett on film, I have to admit he put a pretty sweet move on a linebacker breaking his ankles and getting to the outside.

West Practice

• The midget quarterbacks were stuck on this squad.  Where the East squad boasted two ideal-sized quarterbacks in the 6025 Brantley and 6031 Coleman, the West squad’s tallest passer was the 6014 Chandler Harnish, followed by the 6004 Tyler Hansen and the 5111 Dan Persa.

• I watched the West quarterbacks a little more closely in their footwork drills and their passing.  Northern Illinois Chandler Harnish’s footwork impressed me the most, even though early in the day he seemed like he was having a care to make sure he got it right, which slowed the feet a little.  He looked the most fluid and in control, and he easily stays on the balls of his feet, which helps him stay balanced and keeps his eyes quiet.  Tyler Hansen has an awkward hunched stance with the football during his drop, like someone is taking a picture of him with his favorite puppy.  When you’re already facing challenges for being short, I don’t like exacerbating that with a hunched drop or stance.  Persa was more upright but both players forced the quickness in their feet during footwork drills, which I don’t think translates well trying to read the field in an actual drop back setting.  On the other hand, it’s obvious Dan Persa is a pretty good athlete, and talking to Chad Reuter we agreed that it’s hard not to like him, and it wouldn’t shock to see him move to another position like a Julian Edelman.

• The best passer of the entire day, not just the West squad but easily the entire group of six quarterbacks in St. Petersburg, was Chandler Harnish.  I hate to say I told ya so but after doing a lot of digging on this player I knew he would look the most impressive and that it wouldn’t be close.  Sure enough, I think every eye there would agree that while B.J. Coleman’s whistling torpedoes may possess the most potential, Chandler Harnish was clearly the best passer for Monday.  What got me about his passing was the ball location.  First the quarterbacks threw to receivers running routes against air.  The ball location was great.  Then they threw to single receivers going up against single defensive backs.  Again, location was superb.  Then they pulled out to throwing the ball with a full array of skill players going against a full array of coverage players, sans-linemen, and his ball location was still superb.  He threw the most catchable ball, but also popped the mitt on several occasions and spun the ball well.  The remarkable thing about him throwing the ball well was how quickly he broke down every receiver he was throwing to, deciding how fast they were going to run their route and where he needed to stick the ball.  He is not at all a guy that just throws to a spot and needs a ton of practice to get the chemistry down.  That speaks well to what he’s able to see on the field after the snap.  Truthfully, if Ryan Lindley were practicing with the West as he was originally scheduled prior to being picked up by the Senior Bowl, I believe that Chandler Harnish would have shown him up today.  Harnish also made good reads of coverages and the timeliness on his throws was impressive.  The one chink in the armor was when they pulled everyone in for full team scrimmages.  For about three reps in a row, he had difficulty finding his targets with the rush on.  He got a little better with each rep but still, he had to get used to it.  By the time his rotation came up again, he had acclimated himself to the speed of the full squad scrimmages, and he unleashed two beautiful long throws.  One super long ball was complete to Devon Wylie (more on him in a bit) for a huge gain.  The other he threw to Dale Moss in a classic one on one match up where you throw the ball up and ask your receiver to make a play on the ball.  Moss executed the Tecmo Super Bowl-style jump catch (the infamous “JJ”) perfectly, but lost the ball as he came down with it.  Too bad.  Overall, I think Harnish dominated this Monday practice more than Scott Tolzien of Wisconsin dominated the practices last year.  I look forward to seeing if he can continue it, and then translate the success onto the field during the game itself.  I think he will.

• The worst passer on the West squad was Tyler Hansen.  He was definitely the most scattershot in his accuracy during most drills, leaving the receivers wanting.  Here’s the thing, though: in this practice, the level of play of guys like Chandler Harnish and Dan Persa made Hansen look worse than he was.  When the West squad pulled out into 11 on 11 play, the quarterback to ‘get it’ quickest and actually make an impressive passing play was Hansen.  He’s a tough player and he can handle a rush.  He rolled out and made a great cross-body throw to Dale Moss.  Being Tyler Hansen, on the very next play he tried to throw an interception that was dropped.  Even so, you place Tyler Hansen in the East practice, and I wouldn’t be surprised if in that group he came out looking the best or maybe close second to B.J. Coleman.  Dan Persa, for a time, looked like he was going to give Chandler Harnish a run for his money, in terms of accuracy.  He really throws a pretty good ball, especially deep verticals.  But as the practice wore on, you started to see the kinks as Harnish was continually flawless while Persa started missing more.  I just can’t get over the height.  I’ve heard of small tailbacks hiding behind their linemen so that linebackers have a hard time seeing where they are or what they’re doing, but I’ve never heard of quarterbacks doing it.  When Persa lines up behind his center, you can hardly see him.  How is this guy going to see the field at the next level?  I don’t see it.

• There might be some disagreement as to who was the best receiver on the West.  I have to admit, a few different receivers displayed their own virtues.  But I’ll start with someone I was a little disappointed with and that was Greg Childs of Arkansas.  I don’t know if he’s still robbed of his movement skills due to his recovery from injury, but he wasn’t creating separation.  Chad Reuter and I had a good conversation about creating separation, and how in some cases it’s a little bit of an overused standard, a little bit overrated, as macro-level factors often create the separation for receivers at the next level, and defensive backs tend to be so good that it’s difficult to create any amount of separation against them.  Things like body control, the ability to track the ball in the air and adjust end up a little undersold at times.  I get that, but in Childs’ case today, you have to be able to create SOME separation, at the very least to make it so that defensive backs aren’t licking their chops and sitting on you.  He just wasn’t doing that today.

• I think most guys at the practices would probably settle on tiny Devon Wylie of Fresno State as the most exciting receiver at the West practice.  What really impressed me about him was his ability to string together solid moves in man coverage to create separation, with that ability I talked about before to track the ball in the air, adjust to it, and come down with the ball.  From start to finish it takes a lot of concentration to do these things.  By no means was he tasked with the kinds of upper level responsibilities he’ll have in the pros, between getting off the line unfettered through press coverage, or reading safety leverage from the outside instead of corner leverage.  However, I have to give the guy a break because he was quick as a whip crack out there, got open deep, got open short, tracked the ball in the air the best of any receiver potentially at either practice (even Benford), and even tracked and came down perfectly with a ball that came to him from the exact direction of an extremely bright sun in his eyes on the sunset field.  He reminds me a little bit of Dane Sanzenbacher of the Chicago Bears.  At the start of practice I noticed that he was doing extremely well with punt returns, tracking those balls in the air.  This is a guy to keep an eye on.

• The other receivers on the West that displayed their virtues were Dale Moss of South Dakota State and Jarius Wright of Arkansas.  Wright had a little bit of trouble coming down with the ball later in practice, after he got going.  But the thing he did that caught my attention was just flat out fly.  He’s definitely the guy you want to see on reverses, and he eats cushion unbelievably fast.  Sometimes you have to be right there on the sidelines to really feel a player in that situation, how fast they eat up a defensive back’s cushion producing the “oh sh-t!” transition response, only to see Wright slam on the air breaks more quickly than you can imagine and catch a ball underneath.  While Wylie had more quickness and creativity in creating separation, and certainly displayed the better hands and ability to track the ball in the air, I think Jarius Wright ran more defined routes.  Dale Moss also ran well and displayed a quarterback friendliness that sometimes you can’t put your finger on.  He made himself available, and he’s a big played at over 6’3″ and 220 lbs.  As I said before, his adjustment on the deep jump ball by Harnish was absolutely perfect for him to snatch the ball out of the air at its highest point, and he just failed to finish the play.  I wonder how fast he is, but he showed some promise.  Junior Hemingway and Tyler Shoemaker did not really stand out to me as receivers.  Hemingway was mechanical at times in his routes, transitioning step to step, but he wasn’t a bad player.  He showed some promise on special teams.

• There is an interesting group of tight ends on the West squad.  Cory Harkey of UCLA came out a full 6’4″ and 262 lbs.  NC State George Bryan edged him out as the biggest tight end, at 6’5″ and 265 lbs.  The most interesting player might have been Michigan’s Kevin Koger, at over 6’3″ and 262 lbs.  Finally, the smallest of the bunch was Oregon’s David Paulsen at over 6’3″ and 242 lbs.  Harkey and Bryan were clearly guys that lumber around the field and will struggle to create any kind of separation at the next level.  Harkey dropped the ball a lot at UCLA but I didn’t see too many issues with that today.  In fact, at times, he made catches on late throws where the linebacker was draped all over him.  Bryan continues to look entirely perplexing, a walking contradiction, like a fat martial artist.  He’s clearly very slow and lumbers around (seems like he might time in the 5.0 range), but he moves very smoothly and tracks the ball in the air extremely well, catches it with his hands.  He’s not the top tight end that some believe him to be, but he’s going to play at the next level as a #2.  He will catch passes in the end zone.  I’ve always believed Cory Harkey should think about completely transforming himself, packing on 40 lbs and becoming an offensive guard.  I think he could hold the weight and there are times I see him at UCLA being really physical, driving players.  He might be able to maintain his feet even at the higher weight, and this would give him some appeal as a player you’d want to try.  He’s slightly faster than Bryan, but he’s not as interesting a pass catching threat (which says a lot).  David Paulsen was the midget of the group, only weighing about 240 lbs, and he played like it.  He showed some good feet catching the ball on the sidelines and turning up the field before going out.  However, I can’t imagine him being a very good blocker at the next level.  As I said before, the most interesting player might be Kevin Koger.  During blocking drills, he had quiet but explosive feet, which points to little wasted energy.  He got the movement he needed to get without bleeding energy, and this showed when the players took to the sleds and Koger really exploded, physically knocking the sled backward.  You wouldn’t know by looking at him and how he moves, that he’s actually the same weight as a Cory Harkey or George Bryan.  I think he might be my overall favorite tight end in St. Petersburg, out of either squad.

• You might catch an implication from my notes that the West defensive backs couldn’t cover anyone.  That was, unfortunately, very true.  However, it was not all their fault.  They played a lot of off coverage, and that can take some getting used to in these settings.  They were not very physical in their coverage, generally speaking.  In all but the 11 on 11 drills, they let up just about any catch that was coming to them.  Probably the most impressive corner was either Shaun Prater of Iowa, or Rodney McLeod of Virginia.  The problem with Prater is that he came in just over 5’10″ and only 185 lbs.  But then, Rodney McLeod was the same weight and a half-inch shorter.  These guys were still the fastest and most fluid movers among the corners, showed the quickest read-and-react, and Prater showed a little bit of physicality as well.

• I thought Brandon Hardin of Oregon State and Chris Greenwood of Albion College had the toughest time in coverage.  At almost 6’3″ and 222 lbs, Hardin is really pushing it trying to work at corner in these drills.  He’s just not equipped for dealing with these players in coverage, and he’s being dragged around.  The only thing holding Greenwood back, however, is really himself and his technique.  He’s a lean, lengthy player at over 6’1″ and 196 lb.  I did not sense that he has severe limitations in his movement.  He just needs to learn and trust his technique more.  Keith Tandy and Trevin Wade allowed catches, but no more than anyone else.  Neither stood out to me.

• Among the safeties, my eyes were naturally drawn to Duke Ihenacho, whom I’ll go on record right now as predicting gets an interception against the East quarterbacks during the game itself.  Ihenacho is very solidly built at 6’0″ and 212 lbs.  He’s not as quick-twitch as a corner but as the week gets on I expect him to begin getting a read of things and making a few plays on the ball.  But, as I intimated before in the East review, safeties in this setting don’t get very many opportunities to really stand out.

• Again, I did not get a chance to focus much on the backs, linebackers, defensive or offensive lineman.  I was told that offensive lineman Brandon Brooks of Miami (OH) really made an impression.  He came in just under 6’5″ but a whopping 353 lbs.  One guy I saw moving around during drills that had my attention was defensive lineman Arnaud Gascon-Nadon.  He came in about 6’3″ and 249 lbs, and moved around well enough that I’ll be focusing on him a little later this week to see if he can pull out to linebacker.  However I should note, that’s based on an extremely low amount of attention paid to him during practice.  Tailback Lennon Creer of Louisiana Tech looked big, and measured in at just under 6’0″ and 222 lbs.  He’s someone I am going to want to keep my eye on a little bit.  Marc Tyler also showed up about 5’11″ and 230 lbs, and I’ve actually liked what I’ve seen from him at USC.  Tank Carder measured over 6’2″ and 236 lbs, and even though I’m told he looked thin and narrow at weigh-ins, I think those measurements are a win for him.

That’s it.  I hope you enjoyed the recap.  I absolutely recommend checking out Twitter updates from @CecilLammey, @WesBunting, @Schottey, @OptimumScouting and @JoshNorris for more thoughts on these practices from terrific draft minds.

Quarterback T.J. Yates of the Houston Texans just won his third game as a Houston Texan, second as a starter, clinching the AFC South division title and a playoff berth.  Yates was a largely unheralded 5th round Draft selection out of North Carolina, a school which I’m to understand has never produced a quarterback that has thrown a touchdown in the National Football League…until now.

Houston Texans fans probably know who T.J. Yates is by now, but I think most of other NFL fans do not. As Yates caps off his third win, with two 4th quarter game-winning drives, the question people will soon begin to ask is, how far will this train go before it stops?  Can the Texans go far in the playoffs?  Do they have a quarterback-of-the-future that could see them attempting to trade Matt Schaub in the off season?

If one hopes to address these questions in any way, you can’t focus purely on who T.J. Yates has been in his three games as a Houston Texan.  There simply isn’t enough data.  You have to look at who T.J. Yates was as a college player, as well as who T.J. Yates has been as a pro, in order to plot a trajectory and get an idea of that infamous p-word, ‘potential’.

To that end, I have decided to post two scouting reports I drew up of Yates.  Between Simon Clancy, Richard Lines and myself, we drop a lot of scouting reports and a lot of player comments in a number of different places around the web, be they Miami Dolphins fan boards, the South Florida Sun Sentinel, or this here website.

The following scouting report was a done on 12/27/2010 for a Miami Dolphins fan board known as ThePhins.com and can be found in its original form HERE.  You will notice a lot of references to Pat Devlin of Delaware in the report.  This is not coincidental.  Pat Devlin and T.J. Yates were two quarterback prospects that resembled one another a lot on the football field, in that they seemed to operate heavily in dink and dunk offenses, with both players embracing the nuances of the position such a quick release, using eyes to draw defenders away from the target, and throwing with good touch and timing.  In the end, I preferred Yates heavily over Devlin because Yates was able to have success against much higher levels of competition, seemed to throw well when asked to make bigger throws, had a more accurate deep ball, was a better game manager especially in two-minute situations, and handled the pre-Draft process better.

I think that if the Miami Dolphins drafted T.J. Yates in the 2nd Round of the 2011 Draft, there would be a lot of boos. I would not be among them, and I would argue hard to soothe peoples’ anger over that. In my heart, he’s that caliber a prospect.

Background: He was not a super high recruit out of High School. He only played one year at Pope High School, but he’d been playing football since he was 4 years old. He was a multi-sport athlete. He averaged 18 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists as a backetball player. He threw for 2300 yards and 17 TDs, rushed for 300 yards and 7 TDs, and punted 34 times for 1237 yards in his one year at Pope High. He was rated the 60th prospect in the state of Georgia by SuperPrep. You know what I find funny? I’ll get to more about this later, but the players I wanted to compare him to are Peyton Manning and Chad Pennington. Sure enough, in his background, one discovers that he grew up near Indianapolis and his favorite team is the Colts, and he follows them closely to this day. It shows.

Surrounding Cast & Offense: This is a pro style offense, almost to its own detriment. It’s a play-action based system with a vertical passing game, rollouts, protections, double moves, delay routes, pump fakes, check down options, hot reads, cut-offs, option routes, screens, audibles, everything you might see at the NFL level or on the Miami Dolphins (except ironically, more detail and execution oriented). His offensive line is not particularly good at all. As Simon once put it, Right Tackle Mike Ingersol is the second worst offensive lineman he’s graded all year. Heading into this year, Yates had to be awful excited about having the likes of WR Greg Little, RB Johnny White, RB Anthony Elzy and TE Zach Pianalto. Too bad! Little got caught up in the huge NCAA violations snafu along with Marvin Austin, out for the entire year. Pianalto made it 6 games before getting hurt. Anthony Elzy was one of his top passing targets and made it 8 games before he got hurt. Johnny White made it 9 games before getting hurt. And let’s not mention the players on defense that have had to miss all or part of the year, due to the scandal. A defense that was supposed to be the best in the country has instead allowed 23 points a game. New targets have emerged for Yates, chief among them the deep threat Dwight Jones. Erik Highsmith is not a dynamic player, and the tight ends after Pianalto are just bodies. Yet, they are 7-5 and haven an upcoming Bowl game against the Tennessee Volunteers.

Throwing Skills: He doesn’t have a hot cannon like some of these players (Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert), but he doesn’t have to get a full follow-through in order to get juice on his 20-25 yard throws either. I would say his arm is somewhere in the viscinity of Andrew Luck’s. He can smoke the 15 to 20 yard ball, and launch the ball 60 yards vertically with high trajectory and good spin on a relatively painless wind-up and delivery. He regularly does so, and very, very accurately. He throws naturally, he doesn’t aim the ball on his short throws, or look awkward in any way. His comfort zone is between 15 and 25 yards, and he’ll opt for throws in that range within the offense on most of his throws. But as I mentioned, he mixes them up with 50 to 60 yard verticals, which are most often on the mark. I can watch Blaine Gabbert hit 1 of 7 deep vertical throws, where T.J. Yates even with players he didn’t necessarily know he’d be relying on, will hit on more like 6 of 7 deep verticals right in stride. His ability on the deep vertical is one of the more amazing aspects of his game. When he misses, he only JUST misses. He leads his receiver excellently. Speaking of leading his receiver, his passing offense is really very oriented toward hitting receivers on the move rather than receivers coming back to the quarterback. It’s more RAC-friendly. On the one hand this means that he doesn’t have a lot of tape of the kinds of throws Chad Henne is asked to make regularly, the comebacks and curls, etc. On the other hand, it shows how good his location is that he can get the ball to players on the move and run a more RAC-friendly offense, and those offenses are more successful in the NFL than Miami’s conservative passing principles.

Throwing Mechanics: Sometimes his ball will come out at about an earhole delivery, due to his focus on quick, three-quarters release. This is especially the case due to his focus on passes in the 15 to 25 yard range through the air. This is as opposed to Pat Devlin, who has the same quick release, but still gets the ball up over top even on the short passes. Yates gets his arm up on bigger throws, and like I said his release is quick and mechanically very sound. He steps into his throws, as [some] point out, he stays over his front foot. On his deep throws, his shoulder aiming is ideal.

Pocket Mechanics: This is the most fundamentally sound technician in the Draft at the quarterback position, overall. As I said before, it’s funny watching him and thinking, I’m watching a young Peyton Manning, he’s THAT obsessive-compulsive over the details and minutae…and then you find out he’s been a Colts fan all his life and keeps close track of them to this day. His fake and handoff mechanics go beyond “good”. To him, they’re at the level of an art. He sticks the ball out, ducks his head, and has a commitment to making his fakes and handoffs look identical. He takes the time and shows haste and commitment to faking after the handoff, whether it be faking like he still has the ball and he’s about to pass it, or faking an end-around handoff after the fact. He is a dropback passer that pops his head around quickly after the play fake, and his feet are in a real hurry to get back from center. He moves his feet quickly and doesn’t elongate his stride, which makes him more reactive during his setup. He uses the pocket and slides through it rather than running away from it, breathing well inside the pocket. I don’t sense issues with batted balls. At quarterback you want a guy that owns the football, and he owns the football. He is able to quickly get control of bad shotgun snaps, and on other shotgun snaps his ability to get control of the ball looks effortless. His manipulation of defensive players on screens is very good.

Offensive Command: His mastery of this fully pro style play-action vertical passing and screen offense is not quite at Peyton Manning levels, but you can tell that he is committed to being there the more he works at it. He makes every detail of the game his obsession, including things like a hard count with a subtle head bob, things of that nature. He regularly audibles, uses formation changes, motion, sets protections, and calls for hot reads and cutoffs. He runs the offense like a top, never runs into time issues, never seems to need a timeout. He seems particularly good at running the offense through the 2 minute drill. He executed one of the most impressive 60 second drills I’ve seen this season college or pro in his first game of the 2010 season against LSU. He started the drive with the ball at his own 27 yard line, 1:08 remaining with NO timeouts, and down 6 points against a top SEC defense. He methodically got the ball all the way to LSU’s 6 yard line before Zach Pianalto dropped two balls in the end zone to end the game, the second drop featuring Defensive Pass Interference that went uncalled.

Reading Defenses: His ability to read the field is highly evident. He is not quite as adept at using his eyes to fake defenders as Pat Devlin, but he’s close, and he is right there with Devlin as far as taking in the whole field and getting down to his 3rd and 4th reads. He, like Devlin, is far more advanced than Blaine Gabbert in this regard. Except, unlike Pat Devlin, this guy is doing it against the likes of LSU, Florida State, Clemson and NC State, and that really has to count for something. One thing that he shows that I really like is the ability to stay on the same page and read the improvisation of his receivers. His receiver we’ll point somewhere, he’ll SEE IT, and he’ll make the throw. You wouldn’t think so, but it’s pretty rare for a quarterback to be able to see everything on the field and have the game be slow for him to where he can make those kinds of reads and decisions on the fly. He will play with a trust level in his receivers, throwing the ball and letting them make a play on it. The throwaway is very much in his arsenal, he does it regularly, he’s an unselfish player. He understands how to play the high-low game to victimize zone coverage and going back to the eyes, it’s one of the many details that uses and I have no doubt he’ll continue to work on it at the next level. I have noticed that he can be robbed underneath, and at times he can forget zone defenders coming from way over. Virginia Tech had a successful strategy to take away his deep ball and force some turnovers, and that was to have the defensive back on the back side bail all the way back and help with the deep vertical to the play side. He can also try and fit the ball into too tight a window, at times, relying on his arm too much. This is the sin of many a great, confident quarterback.

Timing & Anticipation: His timing and anticipation are about as good as it gets at this level. He throws the ball often before the player makes his break. He gets good timing on the ball even on 3rd or 4th reads, without necessarily hurrying through his progression or skipping open players. He shows good timing on screens to the runner.

Ball Location: He will go through pretty long stretches where his ball location on short routes is excellent, but then he can screw it up at times, as most of these guys do. He has much better ball location than Blaine Gabbert, from what I’ve seen. Pat Devlin might have better location, just because Devlin can go almost an entire game without throwing more than one or two off on the location. Again though I have to emphasize that his placement on the deep vertical is pretty damn special.

Under Pressure: This is his biggest weakness, really. He’s a safe decision maker under pressure, but he will also get sacked. He doesn’t have the physical prowess to step up and create on the move. This is not unlike Peyton Manning. If you get Peyton on the move, you’re putting him in a position where he’s a lot less effective. He’s up and down on the bootleg with pressure on his face. I’ve seen him take sacks and look a little questionable on it because he can’t create, but at the same time I often see him get his head around quickly and release the ball very quickly off the boot. If the guy is open, the ball is coming out catchable and timely. If he’s not, and there’s pressure right in his face off the boot, that’s where sack issues come into play. He also needs to learn to slide in appropriate situations. He may have an alarming number of the details right, but there are still other details left to be mastered.

Touch: His touch on short passes is natural, and on the deep verticals is downright perfect. The ball doesn’t sail, he gets the nose of the football down. If you want to see a deep passing CLINIC, then watch his game against Florida State this year. You will see what I mena. His combination of timing, footwork, and touch on the screen pass make him probably the most advanced screen passer in the Draft, and North Carolina commonly used the screen pass as a weapon. What is more of a question mark is his shoulder aiming, touch and accuracy on the kinds of passes designed to fit into the spaces between the zones. He doesn’t make a whole lot of use of the intermediate depth areas, so there isn’t a lot of tape of these kinds of throws.

On-Field Demeanor: He is very calm on the field, communicates well. I don’t see him angry, don’t sense selfish throws or selfish plays. He seems to get excited along with his players. I just don’t sense an issue this way.

Feet: Nobody is ever going to confuse him for a track star. When you get him out of the pocket and on the hoof, you’re more holding your breath than anything else, because you know that more often than not, the best you’re hoping for is a throwaway decision. However, his feet in the pocket are not at all leaden. They’re very lively, within the pocket. He can step up, into and through the pocket, finding passing lanes. He’s much quicker than Chad Henne in this way, because the feet match the speed of his mind, and he’s a quicker thinker than Chad Henne.

Overall: Peyton Manning is the name that keeps coming to mind as I watch him play. Not necessarily because he’s got Peyton’s talent, but because he’s got Peyton’s dedication to the details and the art of operating an offense on the field as a field general. As I said, I looked back at my initial notes on Yates and the name Peyton Manning popped up four times. Then I do some more background and discover Yates grew up around Indianapolis and is a big Colts follower to this day. That’s the definition of ‘not a coincidence’. I just got done telling another fellow draftnik it wouldn’t surprise me if T.J. Yates had been to Manning Camp. Sure enough I do some more checking as I write this, he attended Manning Passing Academy three years in a row 2008, 2009 and 2010. There, he taught 900 kids how to play quarterback. What exactly did Manning boys put Yates in charge of teaching in 2009? What else? Throwing the long ball. “You have to get a high release, wide base and get some air under the ball so the nose will be pointing down and land right where you want it. We put a bucket downfield and had the kids try to throw into it”. The reason you buy a T.J. Yates is the reason he’s the only QB I can think of that has been to three straight Manning Camps…commitment to the art of playing quarterback. He is committed to mastering every minute detail of the game, and quite frankly, he’s shown in 2010 a monstrous aptitude for getting those details right on an every-play basis. He makes mistakes and he gets careless, but that commitment to the art of playing quarterback was always present in 2010, every game. The release, the technique, the mechanics, fakes, hand-offs, eye use, understanding what a defense is doing to him, understanding what he wants to do with his offense, getting players on the same page with him.

We talk a lot about upside in the Draft game. The quarterback is a unique position, because it’s one where discussions of upside are not exclusive to the subject of a guy’s size, his arm strength, his inherent accuracy, or his feet. With a quarterback there is an upside associated with how much information a guy can process at one time. There is an upside in how dedicated a guy is at getting every minute detail of the position down. There is an upside associated with how hard a guy is willing to work in order to prepare each week for the game. Those are T.J. Yates’ weapons. They’re his tools. They’re the reason he should continue to get better, the same reason why even when everyone thought guys like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady were maxed out by their fourth or fifth years in the league…they continued to get even better and better. I don’t know how good T.J. Yates will end up. What I do know is he’s really good right now, and even though I think you’re going to hear some people claim that his upside is limited, or he’s as good as he’s going to be, I can guarantee that he’ll get better…because he has the commitment to the details and the art of playing the game. Oh, and the size, arm strength, accuracy, all that? Not bad, either.

Never one to stop harping on a player that I’ve developed a liking for, I continued to post comments on Yates in several places as we digested his All Star, Combine and Pro Day performances.  I wrote the following update on 3/31/2011 for another Miami Dolphins fan board known as FinHeaven.com and the report can still be found in its original form HERE.

Evidently for whatever reason he was asked to throw 112 passes at his Pro Day…and he completed 110 of them.

You guys know me, you know I like Yates a lot. I consider him a guy that could absolutely become a franchise starter in the NFL.

I’ve been doing a lot of work on QBs and part of it is comparative work, putting clips up of similar throws from different players, which sort of highlights in your mind the difference between the players.

I have to say, Yates’ footwork is FREAK-ISH. I mean downright FREAK quality.

What I found when I did my studies of QB releases was that if you measure the release from the lead-foot up, and then from the throwing elbow up, you obviously get different time readings. One is the full motion and the other is just the arm motion only.

Across the board, I found that guys with weaker arms tended to have more discrepancy between foot-up and elbow-up release times. In other words, Ryan Mallett’s motion from lead foot-up would be something like 49 milliseconds, but his motion from drop elbow-up would be 43 milliseconds. But Andy Dalton, who has a much weaker arm, would be lead foot-up at 56 milliseconds (forget the exact numbers), and arm-up would be 41 milliseconds. The disparity between those (6 milliseconds and 15 milliseconds, respectively), would roughly correlate with strong-armed guys and weak-armed guys.

This is intuitive! I measured intermediate pocket passes with pocket rhythm. Guys with naturally weaker arms need their feet more to get the torque to drive the football, and it would only follow that would increase the time from when they start up with their lead foot and then start up their arm motion.

The exception? T.J. Yates. I don’t think people accuse this guy of having a big arm, although sometimes you have to wonder when you see him throw the ball 55 or 60 yards thru the air with perfect ball placement on a vertical while on the run. But Yates had the SMALLEST discrepancy between foot-up and arm-up motions….of any QB I measured. His feet just move that fast and his weight transferrance is that efficient. He can shuffle and reset his feet inside the pocket, and then throw the ball like boxer punch, quicker than any player in this draft.

And he’s ACCURATE. He’s accurate short, and he’s accurate deep. The problem is, in his ultra-conservative offense, you didn’t see him throw a bunch of those intermediate sized 25 to 35 yard throws (thru the air, as the crow flies). You have to put together reams of tape to isolate enough of those throws to get a good sense for his accuracy. Luckily, nobody’s ever accused me of being lazy, when it comes to Draft stuff. I’ve found that on those throws he has what I consider requisite accuracy, which is about 80 percent hitting the WR’s hands.

And did I mention, he probably has THE most accurate deep ball in the Draft? Even more accurate than Newton or Mallett. When he played basketball, he was a star 3-point shooter. It shows in his deep ball as he drops that ball right in the bucket with great placement, timing and arc. I don’t know why [some seem] on a crusade against high-arc deep balls. From what I’ve heard, especially from [Miami Dolphins cornerback] Sean Smith, quarterbacks are more prone to high-arc on their deep balls in the NFL, and hitting the outside shoulder, than in college.

He’s a little over-aggressive, as [some have] come to say, “The REAL T.J. Yates” shows up every now and then”. [They are] referring to how in 2009 and prior, Yates did throw some interceptions.

He’s an excellent game manager. That’s not a bad thing. That’s a good thing. He manages the clock. He manages situations. I don’t know if there’s a quarterback in this Draft that I would take over him if I had less than 2 minutes remaining with no timeouts and I needed to drive 50 or 60 yards to either get a touchdown or field goal to prevent losing the game. That’s saying a LOT.

His dedication to the details is PHENOMENAL. Many times I mentioned in my initial scouting reports the name “Peyton Manning”…and as I did background on him, I found that he grew up and still is a diehard Colts fan, and has attended Manning Camp three consecutive years. What was he in charge of teaching the kids at Manning Camp? What else? THE DEEP BALL.

But you’re talking a four year starter that has been thru ALL the ups and downs, kept fighting, fought thru adversity, all the hate mail, etc…and got BETTER. A guy that is accurate short, accurate intermediate and REAL accurate deep, a guy that is naturally aggressive but was harnessed by a conservative offense, a guy with FREAK footwork, the quickest release in the Draft, a dedication to the smallest of details, extremely hard worker, a leader, great game, situation and time manager…and this guy is so under the radar it’s sickening.

Yeah, I’ve put Ponder above him. That hasn’t always been the case. I do think physically Christian’s top line is just higher as he’s got more athletic ability and experience throwing the intermediate ball more often. You don’t know if Yates is going to be a risky thrower when he has to throw more aggressively again. That’s the danger.

But I see Yates as like another Trent Green, similar footwork, similar effective deep ball.

So there you have it.  Patting myself on the back?  Unabashedly, yes.  But I’m also giving a valuable background in Yates as a collegiate football player and Draft prospect.  Put simply, I don’t truly believe that any good pro quarterback comes from absolutely nowhere.  They may come from an undrafted background, as did Tony Romo and Kurt Warner.  They may come from the 6th round, as Tom Brady did.  But in each case, someone somewhere saw a gifted passer with a promising future.  I am far less inclined to buy into the short-term success of a quarterback, if absolutely NONE amongst those whose opinions I value on the subject, saw anything in the guy whatsoever.  If that were the case, I would be more inclined to chalk the short-term success up to chance, and wait for the clock to strike twelve on Cinderella.

That could very well happen with T.J. Yates.  He is, after all, a rookie.  He does, after all, have significant weaknesses.  However, he’s not a guy that absolutely nobody saw coming, and I think that’s important to note.

This is a tough pick, as personally, I don’t know if any of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft are worthy of the number one overall selection. But, the fact remains that Jimmy Clausen did not play well last year and the passing game was down right putrid. With that in mind, there are a few directions I could see this pick going. The first is the the front office decides to invest in the offense, and Clausen – hoping that a rough first season can be a stepping stone and bring in weapons around him and target wide receiver A.J. Green. The Panthers did draft two receivers; Brandon LaFell and David Gettis last season, and while they did make some plays for the team, neither are the same caliber of player as A.J. Green in my opinion. Steve Smith turns 32 two weeks after the draft and his numbers will begin to decline at some point; it’s inevitable. The second consideration is the middle of the defense. This unit simply doesn’t have the depth it once did. With Ron Rivera’s background, connecting the Alabama Star here is by no means a stretch. The third possibility is that the team drafts Cam Newton. Newton is likely not going to be the opening day starter as he needs to become accustomed to a more expansive  playbook than he had at Auburn. In the end, Newton’s ability to be a dynamic play maker at the quarterback position gives him the edge in Carolina.

2). Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama

Six degrees of separation is at play with this selection as Head Coach John Fox has taken over the reins in Denver. Fox is also a defensive head coach and will want to switch to a 4-3 alignment. The Broncos have Elvis Dumervil to rush the passer, but he is coming back from a torn pectoral muscle so his fitness heading into the season could be a question mark. Outside of Dumervil, the defensive line is made up predominantly of players who are over 30. Defensive tackle was a key component in Fox’s stay in Carolina. Fox wanted both sides of the line to be filled with physical players. Given the age and ability to some of the players in the unit, adding quality talent is a must up front for the defense. Last year the Broncos were ranked 31st against the run, allowing 154.6 yards per game. Patrick Peterson could also be in play here as the Broncos could easily use his services. Renaldo Hill, Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman are each 33 this year and Brian Dawkins is 38. There is some younger talent behind them, but none provide the team with the physical attributes Peterson does. Either way, I see this pick being defensive in nature simply due to the talent available this early, the needs of the team and what Fox will likely want to establish.

3). Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M

The Bills could go a few different ways with this pick. Steve Johnson, while having a great year with over 1,000 yards receiving and 10 TD’s may not be the answer at wide receiver. I say this because in the two previous seasons Johnson had 12 catches for 112 yards and 2 TD’s combined. Basically, Johnson came from nowhere to be the team’s weapon on offense. Buddy Nix may feel that a player like A.J. Green is just what the offense needs to be a truly dangerous unit. On the other hand, the defense is in desperate need of help at outside linebacker. The 3-4 defenses are predicated on their outside linebackers, and right now the Bills don’t have very much talent at the position. The Bills did draft Aaron Maybin a few years ago to bolster their pass rush, but he is nothing more than a Vernon Gholston clone.  Last season Kyle Williams led the Bills in sacks with 5.5. Williams was the team’s nose tackle. Miller possesses great speed off the edge, and while he relies on pure speed over the ability to bend and run the arc, he does have some variety to his pass rush repertoire. Personally, I wonder if someone like Robert Quinn would also garner interest from Nix and company as he too could like play as an outside line backer. Quinn possesses a bit more of an ability to bend his body around the corner than Miller in my opinion, but either player should be a welcome addition to a Bills defense that needs a true play maker if the Bills  are to become a more consistent winner.

4). A. J. Green – WR – Georgia

There is a good deal to take in when projecting this selection. Carson Palmer appears willing to make good his intention to retire, should he not be traded. Unfortunately, without a CBA in place, Palmer will not be traded. The Bengals will have to decide if they feel confident enough in their options via free agency to bypass selecting a quarterback when they come up early in round one. Blaine Gabbert is an option, but personally I am not high on Gabbert so I could see the team passing on him here. Cincinnati probably would like to draft a quarterback that is more NFL ready over a longer term project. I imagine Marvin Lewis certainly would like to have someone a bit more polished, as his 8 year tenure in Cincinnati has not always been secure. But Lewis is not the final decision maker; Mike Brown is, and he has historically gone with highly rated players early in the draft – regardless of many off field issues in some cases. And, while Brown is being stubborn with Carson Palmer, he is not exactly showing him the door either. Mike Brown is being stubborn in an effort to keep Palmer, not jettison him from the roster. As such, drafting a quarterback early doesn’t seem to fit that methodology in my opinion. Drafting a quarterback this early would likely not help mend an already testy relationship – if that is at all possible. I don’t expect Brown to sit tight and mortgage the team’s 2011 season for the sake of Carson Palmer, and as such, I expect him to draft a quarterback. However, the team may look to bring in someone like Christian Ponder, should he still be available later, Ricky Stanzi or Greg McElroy. Outside of quarterback, the Bengals have a need at wide receiver and defensive end. Robert Quinn could very well be the choice here as he would help improve the team’s pass rush. Antwan Odom failed to finish the last two seasons, playing in only 10 games over that span. Michael Johnson, a 2009 selection has not proved to be any less enigmatic at the pro level than he was at Georgia Tech. But the team did find someone to help push the pocket in Geno Atkins last year so overall, the unit is not completely bereft of pass rushers. At wide receiver, Terrell Owens is on the decline and may not be in team’s future. Chad Ochocinco is 34 at the start of the season and appears to also be declining. Jordan Shipley is talented, but he is best suited for the slot. The rest of the bodies at the position are role players. A player like Green could come in and help provide either Palmer or a new signal caller with a competent weapon on the outside; something the team needs.

5). Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina

Over the last few seasons, the Cardinals have tried, somewhat unsuccessfully, to bring a pass rushing outside linebacker into the fold. In 2009, the team drafted Cody Brown out of UCONN. Last year the team brought in Joey Porter, who struggled to register 5 sacks and is 34 years old. Clark Haggans and Paris Lenon are also 34. The team needs and influx of young linebackers who can help rush the passer in the very near future if they aim to remain competitive in the NFC West. The problem the team faces is this draft, unlike years past is that is not a very deep pool of 3-4 outside linebackers. There are options early in the draft, but the quality drops off at the position fairly quickly. With that in mind, the Cardinals may in fact bypass a quarterback this early in the draft to select Robert Quinn. Quinn, while not as nimble as Von Miller is still a good candidate to make the transition. Quinn can have his struggles against the run, so moving him off the line of scrimmage may help alleviate that problem while still allowing him to rush the passer. The other problem facing the Cardinals is that the 2011 quarterback class may not provide many starters in the later rounds, so there is pressure to select a signal caller in the first two to three rounds. The experiment that was Derek Anderson was unsuccessful to say the least. Rookie John Skelton played the final 4 games of the season, and while he did struggle; completing only 47.6% of his passes, he won 2 games. One less than the team won in their first 12 games. With all that being said, Ken Whisenhunt recently sought the advice of star wide out Larry Fitzgerald regarding the position. The short of it is, the Cardinals are likely looking towards free agency or the later parts of the draft for their answer at that position. With all of that being said, the Cardinals may simply go with the best player available; which is Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a bit big for a corner, so there have been some rumblings that he will be moved to safety. I don’t know if that will ever be the case, but the Cardinals could draft Peterson with that in mind at some stage as Adrian Wilson is 32 this year and may not have many years left. If the Cardinals cannot trade out of this pick, this becomes the definition of a value pick.

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It seems as though this is now written in the stars. I often wondered whether a conservative owner such as Jerry Richardson sign off on Newton but the Panthers need a shot in the arm and it seems only GM Marty Hurney is truly still considering that Jimmy Clausen deserves a shot. Newton’s sole season with the Tigers was phenomenal and he’s a better passer than people have given credit for. Mechanically he’s a lot further forward than Tim Tebow was at this stage a year ago and although he has some issues with his footwork that need to be sorted, he can really put down roots to begin to resurrect this franchise. Of course there is serious work to be done, but new head coach Ron Rivera can build a team around Newton. He has outstanding potential. The question is now, can he maximise that? Carolina is a good fit off the field as well; a small market which may keep the spotlight off him more than most NFL cities.

2). Marcel Dareus – DT – Alabama

I refuse to buy into this QB talk surrounding the Broncos at the very top of the draft, regardless of the work John Elway is clearly doing in auditioning players, although I’m much less sure later on. Whether Tim Tebow or Kyle Orton are the answers remain to be seen and part of me wonders whether, if a new league season began before the draft whether Tebow would get moved on draft day. For me Dareus is the best player in the draft. Super talented and a can’t miss prospect. Why? a) Heavy hands; he has the best hands in the draft and can stone a guard or tackle b) Off the ball explosion; for a guy of his size, he gets moving at a remarkable rate. And c) He constantly disengages because of a and b. If you can’t disengage then you’re dead and he does it play after play after play. You can play him as the 5 technique, the 3 or even as the 0 over the center and I think he’d excel in all three. For me Dareus makes tremendous sense for the Broncos who struggled to stop the run a year ago.

3). Von Miller – DE – Texas A&M

Part of me is sold on this pick and part of me isn’t. For me it’s a toss up between Miller and Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert. Why? Well Aaron Maybin simply hasn’t worked out and the Bills need to be able to get pressure on the likes of Mark Sanchez and Tom Brady if they’re going to start to climb the AFC East ladder once more. But Chan Gailey is a fan of mobile passers and Gabbert’s tape is full of those sorts of plays. However, drafting a passer would be tough on the enterprising and sometimes excellent Ryan Fitzpatrick and so the value of Miller makes this the better pick as he will be able to contribute from day 1 both at OLB and DE when the Bills shift to some four man fronts. He is the best pure rusher in the draft, has an explosive first three steps and can bend and dip to the passer as well as anyone.

4). Ryan Mallett – QB – Arkansas

There’s a reason Mallett has been visiting the top teams in the draft. There’s also a reason why Carolina have him as one of 8 players they’re considering for the top spot. Why? Well he’s actually just a really, really good QB and if you read what we spelt out in our Draft Winds special, you’ll discover that a lot of his off the field issues are overblown. The Bengals need help at TB and WR but with Jermaine Gresham, the steady emergence of Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley, the cupboard isn’t completely bare and that’s before we’ve talked about Chad Johnson. Mallett has the talent to start early and with the arm, his ability pre snap and his will to win, this could be a good marriage. He’s spent a lot of time with the Bengals and if Carson Palmer really does mean what he says, then this is a more logical pick than the masses would imagine. The arm strength, ability before the snap and leadership are all huge plus points for a Bengals team with a lot of questions under center. Mallett has All Pro potential and is NFL ready.

5). Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri

The Cardinals clearly like Gabbert at the top of the draft. Rumours are that they view him as the safest of the quarterbacks. But is he the best? Well the Cardinals faithful should find out soon enough and with the offensive firepower of Fitzgerald, Breaston, Doucet, Hightower and Wells, etc., Gabbert will have weapons to work with. Bill Bidwell attended the Missouri pro day and whilst he has flaws in his game including a very ugly completion percentage on throws of more than 15 yards, he showed in his final game for the Tigers an unerring accuracy, a rocket for an arm and the potential to fit the ball into the smallest windows. He does an excellent job with his feet to redirect linebackers and safeties and he could be just the player to kick start the Cardinals in 2011. I don’t buy into the talk that he’s falling to the mid teens. Certainly not with less than 72 hours to go.

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Top 100

1). Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU

2). A.J. Green – WR – Georgia

3). Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama

4). Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M

5). Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska

6). Julio Jones – WR – Alabama

7). Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina

8). Cameron Jordan – DE – Cal

9). Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn

10). Cam Newton – QB – Auburn

11). J.J. Watt – DE – Wisconsin

12). Aldon Smith – DE – Missouri

13). Tyron Smith – OT – USC

14). Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois

15). Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri

16). Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama

17). Muhammad Wilkerson – DT – Temple

18). Anthony Costanzo – OT – Boston College

19). Ryan Kerrigan – DE – Purdue

20). Mike Pouncey – C/G – Florida

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• Round 1, Pick 15

• Round 3, Pick 79

• Round 4, Pick 111

Much like last week we put our heads together and split each pick into sub-sections to make it easier for you to follow. Those subsections are:

• Guys We Want (Players we like as individuals at that spot)

• Runners up (Suitable alternatives)

• Miami Nice (Who we think the Dolphins will pick)

• Guys We Don’t Want (Pretty self explanatory)

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• Round 5, pick 146

• Round 6, pick 179

• Round 7, pick 216

• Round 7, pick 217 (from Jacksonville for Justin Smiley)

• Round 7, pick 234 (compensatory pick)

We thought we’d each have a brief crack at outlining what we believe the Dolphins overall draft strategy might be before we get into the nuts and bolts of our round by round predictions. Last year we were pretty accurate; I nailed Nolan Carroll (a round later than he was actually taken), we all picked AJ Edds at one stage from Round 5 onwards and two of us got Austin Spitler right pick, right round.

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Richard Lines’ Top 100

1). Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU

2). A.J. Green – WR – Georgia

3). Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama

4). Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M

5). Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska

6). Julio Jones – WR – Alabama

7). Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina

8). Cameron Jordan – DE – Cal

9). Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn

10). J.J. Watt – DE – Wisconsin

11). Aldon Smith – DE – Missouri

12). Cam Newton – QB – Auburn

13). Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama

14). Tyron Smith – OT – USC

15). Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois

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1). Cam Newton – QB – Auburn

This is a tough pick, as personally, I don’t know if any of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft are worthy of the number one overall selection. But, the fact remains that Jimmy Clausen did not play well last year and the passing game was down right putrid. With that in mind, there are a few directions I could see this pick going. The first is the the front office decides to invest in the offense, and Clausen – hoping that a rough first season can be a stepping stone and bring in weapons around him and target wide receiver A.J. Green. The Panthers did draft two receivers; Brandon LaFell and David Gettis last season, and while they did make some plays for the team, neither are the same caliber of player as A.J. Green in my opinion. Steve Smith turns 32 two weeks after the draft and his numbers will begin to decline at some point; it’s inevitable. The second consideration is the middle of the defense. This unit simply doesn’t have the depth it once did. With Ron Rivera’s background, connecting the Alabama Star here is by no means a stretch. The third possibility is that the team drafts Cam Newton. Newton is likely not going to be the opening day starter as he needs to become accustomed to a more expansive playbook than he had at Auburn. In the end, Newton’s ability to be a dynamic play maker at the quarterback position gives him the edge in Carolina.

2). Marcell Dareus – DT – Alabama

Six degrees of separation is at play with this selection as Head Coach John Fox has taken over the reins in Denver. Fox is also a defensive head coach and will want to switch to a 4-3 alignment. The Broncos have Elvis Dumervil to rush the passer, but he is coming back from a torn pectoral muscle so his fitness heading into the season could be a question mark. Outside of Dumervil, the defensive line is made up predominantly of players who are over 30. Defensive tackle was a key component in Fox’s stay in Carolina. Fox wanted both sides of the line to be filled with physical players. Given the age and ability to some of the players in the unit, adding quality talent is a must up front for the defense. Last year the Broncos were ranked 31st against the run, allowing 154.6 yards per game. Patrick Peterson could also be in play here as the Broncos could easily use his services. Renaldo Hill, Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman are each 33 this year and Brian Dawkins is 38. There is some younger talent behind them, but none provide the team with the physical attributes Peterson does. Either way, I see this pick being defensive in nature simply due to the talent available this early, the needs of the team and what Fox will likely want to establish.

3). Von Miller – OLB – Texas A&M

The Bills could go a few different ways with this pick. Steve Johnson, while having a great year with over 1,000 yards receiving and 10 TD’s may not be the answer at wide receiver. I say this because in the two previous seasons Johnson had 12 catches for 112 yards and 2 TD’s combined. Basically, Johnson came from nowhere to be the team’s weapon on offense. Buddy Nix may feel that a player like A.J. Green is just what the offense needs to be a truly dangerous unit. On the other hand, the defense is in desperate need of help at outside linebacker. The 3-4 defenses are predicated on their outside linebackers, and right now the Bills don’t have very much talent at the position. The Bills did draft Aaron Maybin a few years ago to bolster their pass rush, but he is nothing more than a Vernon Gholston clone. Last season Kyle Williams led the Bills in sacks with 5.5. Williams was the team’s nose tackle. Miller possesses great speed off the edge, and while he relies on pure speed over the ability to bend and run the arc, he does have some variety to his pass rush repertoire. Personally, I wonder if someone like Robert Quinn would also garner interest from Nix and company as he too could like play as an outside line backer. Quinn possesses a bit more of an ability to bend his body around the corner than Miller in my opinion, but either player should be a welcome addition to a Bills defense that needs a true play maker if the Bills are to become a more consistent winner.

4). A. J. Green – WR – Georgia

There is a good deal to take in when projecting this selection. Carson Palmer appears willing to make good his intention to retire, should he not be traded. Unfortunately, without a CBA in place, Palmer will not be traded. The Bengals will have to decide if they feel confident enough in their options via free agency to bypass selecting a quarterback when they come up early in round one. Blaine Gabbert is an option, but personally I am not high on Gabbert so I could see the team passing on him here. Cincinnati probably would like to draft a quarterback that is more NFL ready over a longer term project. I imagine Marvin Lewis certainly would like to have someone a bit more polished, as his 8 year tenure in Cincinnati has not always been secure. But Lewis is not the final decision maker; Mike Brown is, and he has historically gone with highly rated players early in the draft – regardless of many off field issues in some cases. And, while Brown is being stubborn with Carson Palmer, he is not exactly showing him the door either. Mike Brown is being stubborn in an effort to keep Palmer, not jettison him from the roster. As such, drafting a quarterback early doesn’t seem to fit that methodology in my opinion. Drafting a quarterback this early would likely not help mend an already testy relationship – if that is at all possible. I don’t expect Brown to sit tight and mortgage the team’s 2011 season for the sake of Carson Palmer, and as such, I expect him to draft a quarterback. However, the team may look to bring in someone like Christian Ponder, should he still be available later, Ricky Stanzi or Greg McElroy. Outside of quarterback, the Bengals have a need at wide receiver and defensive end. Robert Quinn could very well be the choice here as he would help improve the team’s pass rush. Antwan Odom failed to finish the last two seasons, playing in only 10 games over that span. Michael Johnson, a 2009 selection has not proved to be any less enigmatic at the pro level than he was at Georgia Tech. But the team did find someone to help push the pocket in Geno Atkins last year so overall, the unit is not completely bereft of pass rushers. At wide receiver, Terrell Owens is on the decline and may not be in team’s future. Chad Ochocinco is 34 at the start of the season and appears to also be declining. Jordan Shipley is talented, but he is best suited for the slot. The rest of the bodies at the position are role players. A player like Green could come in and help provide either Palmer or a new signal caller with a competent weapon on the outside; something the team needs.

5). Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina

Over the last few seasons, the Cardinals have tried, somewhat unsuccessfully, to bring a pass rushing outside linebacker into the fold. In 2009, the team drafted Cody Brown out of UCONN. Last year the team brought in Joey Porter, who struggled to register 5 sacks and is 34 years old. Clark Haggans and Paris Lenon are also 34. The team needs and influx of young linebackers who can help rush the passer in the very near future if they aim to remain competitive in the NFC West. The problem the team faces is this draft, unlike years past is that is not a very deep pool of 3-4 outside linebackers. There are options early in the draft, but the quality drops off at the position fairly quickly. With that in mind, the Cardinals may in fact bypass a quarterback this early in the draft to select Robert Quinn. Quinn, while not as nimble as Von Miller is still a good candidate to make the transition. Quinn can have his struggles against the run, so moving him off the line of scrimmage may help alleviate that problem while still allowing him to rush the passer. The other problem facing the Cardinals is that the 2011 quarterback class may not provide many starters in the later rounds, so there is pressure to select a signal caller in the first two to three rounds. The experiment that was Derek Anderson was unsuccessful to say the least. Rookie John Skelton played the final 4 games of the season, and while he did struggle; completing only 47.6% of his passes, he won 2 games. One less than the team won in their first 12 games. With all that being said, Ken Whisenhunt recently sought the advice of star wide out Larry Fitzgerald regarding the position. The short of it is, the Cardinals are likely looking towards free agency or the later parts of the draft for their answer at that position. Quinn, gets the call as the team looks to upgrade the defense early on.

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In all the searching around that we did, the one rumour that wouldn’t go away concerned drug use. But what’s interesting about that is that a lot of misinformation gets passed off as fact: take a discussion thread I came across on the net that Ryan’s father Jim, a middle school teacher and football coach, struggles with drugs himself in Texarkana. There were responses to said thread that intimated that this was a serious discussion: it isn’t. And that’s a fact. We’re never likely to privy to the sort of in-depth information that NFL teams are. After all, there’s a reason why ex members of the secret service do their investigating for them. This goes for most if not all of the draft analysts you will come across to a greater or lesser extent. But what we’re tried to do here is give you facts where possible, backed up by quotes and sources. Where we delve into speculation, we’ll make that clear as well.

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