Buffalo Bills: Which rookie will make an impact in 09?

The Bills had some pre draft issues that were outlined in the general team synopsis. In this installment I aim to explore which rookies I think will have an impact on the team, and those who will fall into the cracks. On average, only 40% of a team’s draft class ends up contributing or even on an active roster within 3 years. I just wish to get ahead of the curve and explore who those contributors will be going into the 2009 season. I will highlight players that I think will make a contribution in 2009, or need to, for the team to have a successful season.

Every player that was recently drafted will not make an impact on the team this upcoming season, no matter the hopes and dreams of fans and front office personnel alike.

Possible Contributors:

Andy Levitre

The Bills did the unthinkable in many circles; trade away a franchise left tackle. Subsequently, the main concerns regarding the Bills centered on their need along the offensive line. After all, the team now needed to remake the entire left side of the unit. Levitre could start inside at guard, as the team has asked Brad Butler to move outside to right tackle. Langston Walker has made the move to left tackle; a move that I am not that sold on to be honest, as I question his ability to handle the position. The AFC East possesses some competent pass rushers, which should only make the job tougher for Walker.

Levitre played left tackle whilst in college at Oregon State. The former Beaver’s biggest issue may be his lack of ideal measurables. He has quick feet, and does a decent job against speed rushers as he can mirror their speed fairly well. Levitre is not elite in terms of his athleticism, but he is certainly in the top 20% of the offensive linemen available in the 2009 Draft in my opinion. His athleticism makes him versatile; playing both guard and tackle.

In my opinion Levitre is a better pass blocker than run blocker. He may be better at run blocking on the perimeter, as he would not be asked to drive players off the ball as often as he would at guard. His skill set seems to fit outside more so than on the interior in my opinion. However, the same athleticism that could see him get a chance at tackle could also be beneficial as a pulling guard, which is where he has been seeing action this off season. I just wonder about Levitre’s ability to drive players off the ball on the interior. Can the former Beaver really handle playing against the likes of Kris Jenkins, Vince Wilfork and Jason Ferguson? The fact the Bills wish to operate a no huddle offense may help Levitre manage the duties at guard as he would not be an in line blocker very often.

The former Oregon State star does a good job of keeping his hands high in pass protection, but he could use to play with a little more body lean. He shows a good degree of knee bend in pass protection, but he has a tendency to play rather upright in his upper body. Levitre gains position via his fluid hips and ability to slide his feet rather than power.

Eric Wood

If the Bills do stay with the idea of having Langston Walker at left tackle and Brad Butler at right tackle, the team will need to replace both guards. Wood, like Levitre is versatile as he can slide between center and guard. Wood is 6’4”; a bit tall for a center. But his height is not the only reason he will likely see time at guard. His physical style and ability to drive defenders off the ball should get Wood the starter’s role sooner rather than later. Wood is not simply a mauler; he is quick off of the snap and was often asked to complete reach blocks whilst in college; which speaks to his short area quickness. Wood is a technically sound player with a high football acumen, which should make his transition to the pro game that much easier.

Wood is a more physical player than Levitre, but he is not a Larry Allen clone either. The former Louisville star keeps his feet moving and can generate some movement at the point of attack. Wood has a great deal of lower body strength but the same cannot be said for his upper body. He routinely allows his opponent into his chest; allowing the defender control of Wood’s torso. Currently Wood relies on his ability to absorb contact and generate a good deal of leg drive to get the job done. The Louisville product could lock out his arms more often, which may help his ability to generate leverage in the run game.

He has decent lateral agility, but the former Louisville Cardinal is somewhat stiff through his hips; meaning he can struggle to maintain position when faced with one gap penetrators. Wood is not to be mistaken for a human turnstile by any means, but he can have problems mirroring these quicker defenders if he is beaten off the snap of the ball. However, Wood will not quit on the play, fighting to make a block, often cleaning up the pile at the end of a play.

Wood lacks good straight line speed, but does possess short area quickness. I do not wish to give the impression that Wood is a very limited athlete, as he is a solid player who should contribute in the league. He will not be very effective if asked to pull a great deal on stretch plays for example. The more Wood is asked to run as a lead on pulling plays the less effective he will be due to his lack of straight line speed. His best asset is his initial quickness, not his ability to reach the second level.

Aaron Maybin

Maybin will likely make an impact, but it will be as a situational pass rusher. I cannot see the Bills asking the former Nittany Lion to play a great deal of snaps on 1st and 2nd down initially. Maybin has two areas that need to be addressed before he can see the field on a regular basis in my opinion. Maybin is not adept at setting the edge at this stage of his development. Now, I must say that most of that assessment is based on what he could do in college whilst playing around 230lbs. Maybin gained a substantial bit of weight during the pre draft process; seeing his weight rise over 250lbs. The added weight could help him handle setting the edge against the run, but will it affect his first step?

Maybin is very raw, with a limited array of pass rushing moves. He relied on his first step in college rather than being fundamentally sound. Whilst dynamic, relying on one move in the NFL can be the quickest way out of the league. Maybin does not use his hands very well to defeat his blocker at the point of attack, rarely showing an arm over or swim move. He is effective at using his speed to gain the upper hand, then ripping his inside arm into the chest of his opponent as he runs the arc to the quarterback. But he does not use a rip move as a redirect back inside a great deal, and can be a bit of a one trick pony.

Maybin does work to get free, and will hustle through the end of the play, but he does not always disengage easily. He has been described as tireless worker, and if he can be mentored by the current crop of defensive ends, he could prove to be a special player. But, whilst he is learning I expect his impact to be somewhat limited. I know Bills fans would like to see Maybin come in and set the league on fire, but I think his production will be somewhat limited until he refines his game; especially his hand use. If he can become more proficient in finding ways to attack the inside shoulder of the offensive tackle, he will be a tough matchup. His first step will cause many tackles to worry about the outside move; thus they will look to get to the edge that much faster. Therefore, he will have even more opportunities to redirect inside and expose players with less than stellar athleticism. If Maybin gains position on his opponent, he has the speed and explosion to capitalize on the space he has created. But again, at this stage this is more of an “if” than a “when” and until we can talk about Maybin using the latter, he will be a limited contributor. But he certainly has the ability to be more.

Ellis Lankster

Lankster may very well surprise over the course of the summer practice. Lankster is very much in the mold of former Bill Antoine Winfield; and undersized corner that plays like a safety in the run game. Lankster is a physical player who does not shy away from contact; regularly making the tackle against much bigger ball carriers. Corners who are physical tacklers are a rarity, having one who is only 5’9” even more so.

Lankster is not simply a good run defender. The former West Virginia star is adept at making plays on the ball whilst it is in the air. He is aggressive, even to a fault, as he will occasionally lose his coverage as he looks to make a play on the ball – which may be intended for another receiver. He can be looked off by quarterbacks, leading to some big plays against him. But, he does make up for it by providing solid coverage at other times during the course of the game.

Lankster is best when he can make plays coming forward rather than being a man to man corner. If he is asked to trail his man all over the field he may struggle to stay in the hip pocket of the receiver due to his lack of top notch speed. This undersized corner is fairly instinctive, but he can also gamble too much. Personally, I like a corner that is willing to make a play over one who is too afraid of giving one up.

Lankster will likely find a home on special teams to start the year due to his toughness and willingness to stick his nose in on tackles. He may make enough plays in practice to warrant some time in dime situations. His lack of size may preclude him from being a fulltime starter as he can be overpowered by bigger receivers in the run game as he can struggle to disengage easily. He shows good effort though, and will fight to get back in the play from the backside.

Possible Disappointments:

Nic Harris

Nic Harris was a starting safety for the Oklahoma Sooners in 2008. However, having run a 4.8 forty he will have to make the move to linebacker in the NFL. However, a 4.8 forty is also quite slow for an outside linebacker on the next level. He could face issues in coverage due to his lack of ideal speed. Harris has been asked to play in coverage before, but he is best in a zone scheme where he can make plays coming forward. The former Sooner is not a player you want dropping back and trying to cover a back for long stretches. Harris simply is not an explosive player, which affects his ability to see the field a great deal in my opinion on the next level. Harris is stiff hipped; not a good trait to have along with a lack of speed.

Harris is an adequate tackler, although he does not always take the best angles to reach players on the boundary. His lack of speed doesn’t help, as he can find himself trying to make too many plays from behind rather than getting himself in front of the ball carrier.

I also wonder about Harris’ ability to disengage from his blockers once engaged, as he is not very adept at using his hands to disengage from blockers; he just doesn’t have the experience at the position. From his safety spot, he was able to run around a great many blocks; enabling to make plays. He will have to prove that he can make plays whilst engaged, something he had issues with when he was asked to play at the linebacker spot at the Senior Bowl. I personally believed the Bills would look to add talent to the linebacking corp earlier than they did and certainly not a project like Harris.

Harris probably could find a home on special teams due to his physical nature. It may be his best way to lock down a roster spot on a team that sees itself as a contender in the AFC East in 2009. His lack of speed and experience may be too much for him to overcome initially forcing to see limited action. Harris was a good college player, but his physical limitations and lack of experience may make the transition somewhat difficult in the end, limiting his impact.

Cary Harris

Harris is one of three defensive backs the Bills selected in 2009. He is a very smooth player who understands the game. Harris may fit the Bills’ defense as he relies on a mental approach to the game rather than physical gifts. Harris is more apt to settle for the safe play rather than going for the game changing interception. Such a strategy limits big plays, but also his ability to make them. He will need to show that he is willing to take a chance if he eventually wants to start, as turnovers are a key element of the game in my opinion.

Harris does do a good job of keeping the receiver in front of him and can make the sure tackle in the open field. His size and fundamentally sound style of play could allow him to succeed in the Bills defense. He can play close to the line of scrimmage, but Harris is not a man to man corner as he is simply not laterally explosive. He is best when allowed to play coming forward, relying on his sure tackling and physical style. The former Trojan does not make the game altering play, which is an issue in my opinion.

I do have reservation regarding his overall speed, but given the Bills use of zone coverage, he could come in and see some playing time, but I still wonder about his lack of big plays. The Bills do have good depth at the corner position, but Terrence McGee has already sustained a shoulder injury during pre season workouts. I like Harris as a player, but I think that the play of Lankster will overshadow him, and may see him wind up on the practice squad. I am bit split on Harris as he could show enough to make the roster, or he may simply blend in too much and not separate himself from the rest of the pack. Given the depth the Bills have, he will have to do just that.

Jairus Byrd

The reason I have Byrd listed as a possible disappointment is that I think he will be used as a safety rather than a corner. If he is a safety, then he may have to wait to see playing time. There were rumors that the team was unhappy with the play of Ko Simpson before the draft, but Simpson remains on the team and ahead of Byrd. Simpson may be feeling some heat due to his inability to create turnovers – he has only two career interceptions – and mental lapses.

If the Bills look for Byrd to be a corner I think he will struggle to see the field given the depth already present. Out of the three corners the Bills selected in 2009, I can see only one making an impact in 2009, given the quality of players ahead of them. Byrd was considered somewhat of a hybrid type player to begin with given his size, at 207lbs and his lack of straight line speed.

Byrd is quicker than he is fast and may have trouble matching up well with pro receivers. The Bills do use zone coverage, which can help cover Byrd’s lack of speed. Byrd has the flexibility and lose hips to make breaks on the ball, but he is simply may not be explosive enough to stay at corner. If he has to cover a great deal of ground, Byrd may be in trouble. If he can sit back at safety, watching the play unfold, his instincts should take over and lead him to the football. Byrd does create turnovers, registering 17 interceptions as a collegian. The former Duck is a solid, yet surprisingly less than physical hitter. Byrd will stick his head in and make the solid play rather than trying to blow his man up – which can lead to broken tackles as the defender typically fails to wrap up.

Byrd’s cover skills and instincts may see him compete with Simpson for playing time down the stretch, but for the most part I think he will remain on the bench as he hones his skills for 2010. If Simpson shows some of the mental lapses that he has in the past, the team may begin to expedite the process of getting Byrd on the field.

Shawn Nelson

I know this will likely make this blog unpopular in Buffalo, but I think Nelson will be somewhat of a disappointment in his first year in Buffalo. One reason is simply the presence of Terrell Owens. Many fans will respond that Owens’ presence will open up the middle of the field, making life easier for Nelson. Yes, this is true, but Owens will also demand to be the focal point of the offense. Veterans Lee Evans and Josh Reed will surely be campaigning for the ball also. Nelson may simply have a hard time getting the ball due to the demands the receivers will be making on Trent Edwards.

Another reason Nelson may not make as much of an impact as Bills fans would like is the team’s desire to trade away a quality left tackle, and then fail to draft one. Langston Walker is currently penciled in at left tackle, but I have reservations about such a move. Brad Butler is now at right tackle – a position he hasn’t played since college, and there are two rookies vying for spots along the interior. In my mind there are simply too many changes occurring along the Bills offensive line to allow a seamless transition by all of the players involved. The Bills also wish to run a no huddle style of offense; which only puts more stress on the offensive line as most times a no huddle is not operating a traditional base offense. Three wide receiver sets will like be the base for the no huddle, as when the K-Gun ran rough shot over the NFL in the early 1990′s.

If all these factors combine, can the Bills really afford to have Nelson running patterns? Could he be better served blocking a majority of the time as the offensive line jells? If the Bills are running a one back offense, then the tight end will take the place of the full back on running plays, and even in passing sets on occasion. Not to mention that the Bills will be without a solid pass protector in Marshawn Lynch for the first 3 games of the season.

I think that given the transitions in Buffalo, Nelson may end up doing a good deal of the “dirty work” initially. Once the offensive line jells together – a process that could legitimately take 3-5 weeks, especially if the rookies play – and Lynch is back in the fold, then Nelson may see more opportunities.

Nelson surprised many at the Senior Bowl with his blocking ability, but one of his flaws also showed.  Despite being an athletic specimen, Nelson does not dominate many games. More often than not, he can simply blend in struggling to make an impact on the outcome. Despite playing against some lesser competition, Nelson only managed to have a career high of 36 receptions coming into his senior year. His senior year was by far his best, as he managed 4 or more receptions in 5 games. (Nelson did register 12 receptions in one game in 2008, which does raise his average per game significantly) Nelson garnered 4.41 receptions per game in 2008, a big jump over his previous totals for his career. He averaged 2.69 receptions per game in 2005, 2.57 receptions per game in 2006 and 2.35 receptions per game in 2007. In only one out of 4 years did he have an average above 3.0 receptions a game, before that his production went down each successive year in terms of catches per game.

The former Southern Miss star may see more opportunities as the season wears on as some of the issues I’ve raised have metered themselves out. But, Nelson will still have to prove that he can convert his practice play to the field. He has the speed, explosion and the hands to be a good contributor, but he must become more refined and consistent. He flashes potential, but then will get lazy; running lazy routes, or dropping easy passes; things that pro players cannot do. His inconsistency makes him disappear from games, but if he can ever get it all together, he could be a solid player.